Three Clocks, One Direction: the yen, the BOJ–Fed gap and the tariff that lapses in July

Sun, 28 Jun 2026 08:00:00 +0900

In 2025 Japan ran a current-account surplus of ¥31.9trn, a record and the second in a row. Yet the yen has not stopped falling. Even after the Bank of Japan raised rates in June 2026, the currency trades around ¥161 to the dollar, close to its weakest since 1986. A record creditor’s currency sits at a four-decade low. Unless that contradiction can be resolved, the question every market participant is asking has no answer: where does the yen go next?

BalanceOfPayments on Gyokuro Time

Three Clocks, One Direction: the yen, the BOJ–Fed gap and the tariff that lapses in July