FX

Somewhere between $250 billion and $4 trillion, a ghost lives. The yen carry trade (borrow cheaply in Japan, invest where yields are higher) has been the subject of a strange argument since the August 2024 unwind sent the Nikkei down 12% in a single session. One camp says the trade is dead. The other says it never left. Both cite data. Both sound confident. They cannot both be right, and at USD/JPY 160.46 with the vice finance minister invoking “resolute measures” for the first time in his tenure, the answer has stopped being academic. ...