Japan’s record ¥122.3 trillion budget passed on 7 April. Domestic media are busy picking ‘Takaichi stocks’ in defence and semiconductors. But the financial statements of the supposed beneficiaries tell a different story – and the budget’s largest single outflow goes not to growth investment but to debt service, enriching the banks and life insurers who underwrite it.
In 1274, a Mongol-Korean invasion force landed at Hakata Bay in northern Kyushu. Japan’s samurai, trained for single combat, were routed by massed formations wielding gunpowder weapons they had never seen. A storm forced the invaders to withdraw, but the lesson was plain: the existing military model would not survive a second attempt. The Kamakura shogunate spent the next seven years preparing. It built a 20km stone seawall along Hakata Bay, developed small-boat night-raiding tactics and established Japan’s first permanent coastal defence force. When a far larger invasion arrived in 1281, the seawall held. The Mongol fleet sat offshore for weeks, unable to land. Then a typhoon struck and finished what Japanese preparation had started. ...
On 8 February 2026, Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in Japan’s snap election. Her LDP-Ishin coalition secured 352 seats in the 465-member Lower House, surpassing the two-thirds supermajority threshold. For the first time in years, Japan has a government with both a clear economic agenda and the parliamentary authority to execute it. For US and European investors who may not follow Japanese politics closely, this matters. The policy framework that Takaichi is building, sometimes called “Sanaenomics,” represents the most explicitly growth-oriented programme Japan has pursued since Abenomics a decade ago. But where Abenomics relied primarily on monetary policy, Takaichi’s approach centres on industrial strategy and direct fiscal spending. The difference has implications for which sectors benefit and how foreign investors should think about exposure. ...
Two reflationist academics, Toichiro Asada of Chuo University and Motohiro Sato of Aoyama Gakuin University, have been nominated to the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board. The market’s initial reaction was predictable: the Takaichi government is signalling that it wants to slow rate hikes. The yen weakened, stocks rose, and long-dated bond yields steepened. A textbook reflationist repricing. But there is another way to read these appointments. And which reading proves correct has meaningful implications for how you position in Japanese equities. ...