TOPIX

For over a decade, the default recommendation for retail investors worldwide has been simple: buy a global index fund and forget about it. The MSCI All Country World Index — or its close cousin, the S&P 500 — became the intellectual path of least resistance. And for a long time, it worked beautifully. But the conditions that powered that trade are shifting. I believe we are entering a period where Japanese equities will meaningfully outperform global indices. This is not a short-term tactical call. It is a structural argument built on five mutually reinforcing pillars. ...

If your portfolio looks like most Western retail investors’ portfolios, it is heavily allocated to US equities, probably through an index fund that gives you roughly 65% exposure to American companies. That allocation has served you well for the past decade. The question is whether it will continue to do so, and whether you are missing something by not looking elsewhere. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Janus Henderson, Invesco, and Daiwa Asset Management have all published constructive outlooks on Japanese equities for 2026. These are not speculative calls from boutique firms. These are the largest asset managers and investment banks in the world, and they are allocating real capital. ...